In ‘Electrify*’, Saul Griffith sets out to ‘show you a clear path to a better world in enough detail to bridge the imagination gap’, not to write a ‘doomsday book’. Having said that, he argues that the energy transition ‘has to be now, not 10 years from now, or even a month from now’. ‘We have arrived at the last moment when we can shift global energy infrastructure without passing a 1.5°– 2°C temperature rise’. How will this be fixed? The hint is in the title, ‘Electrify’. ‘We need EVs and other emissions-free vehicles to be 100% of vehicle sales as soon as is physically and industrially possible. And similarly, domestic heating needs to move massively over to electricity. The free market is unlikely to solve the challenge of 100% rapid adoption and needs an invisible foot to give it a swift kick in the ass now and then. Every player, individuals, governments, businesses and the market needs to work together. Such major projects and achievements have been realized in the past: John Muir’s advocacy that saved the US wilderness, FDR’s New Deal, the mobilization for WW II and the space race. Griffith is an energy geek. His company, Otherlab, was contracted by the US Department of Energy to consolidate energy use data, some of the results used in Electrify can be seen on the cheekily named departmentof.energy.
Griffith is dismissive of what he describes as ‘1970s thinking’ that involves ‘trying extremely hard, and making sacrifices so that the future will be a little less fucked than it might be otherwise’. The 2020s mindset says, ‘If we build the right infrastructure, right away, the future will be awesome!’ So out goes energy efficiency (politically problematic) and carbon capture (too expensive) along with lots of other stuff like ‘sustainable’ fish, public transportation, and stainless steel straws. ‘Let’s release ourselves from purchasing paralysis and constant guilt at every small decision we make so that we can make the big decisions well’. Massive electrification is the best way to address climate change. And by the same token, out go dumb-ass energy vectors including hydrogen and ammonia that use up more energy than they convey. ‘Hydrogen vehicles are the canonical case of this silliness’.
Massive electrification (from solar and wind) will reduce energy needs by more than half due to the efficiency of electric vehicles and heating systems and in eliminating the significant amounts of energy used in finding, mining, refining, and transporting fossil fuels. Griffith has no time for the naysayers, who cynically wish to keep profiting from fossil fuels, ‘burning your children’s future’. ‘Don’t let them divide us by confusing us. We don’t just need to change our fuels, we need to change our machines’.
Electrifying transportation is a big win, saving around 15%. For domestic heating ‘we have an astounding and well-developed technology called heat pumps that significantly outperform the old ways of doing things**’. Adding up all the savings means that ‘we only need around 42% of the primary energy we use today’. ‘America can reduce its energy use by more than half by introducing no efficiency measures other than electrification’. No thermostats need be turned down and no vehicles or homes downsized. Electrification is a ‘no-regrets’ strategy for decarbonization.
Griffiths shows how, with a lot of solar and wind power, but not an unrealizable amount, a 1,500-1,800 GW capacity can be achieved. Over three times the amount of electricity currently produced. The landscape will look different with pervasive solar panels and windmills. To power all of America on solar would require 15 million acres (about 1% of land area), roughly what is currently dedicate to roads or rooftops. The calculation includes summer and winter variations in solar input and reasonable assumptions as to panel efficiency. Griffith is dismissive of the nimbies. ‘We have learned to live with a lot of changes in our landscape, from electricity lines and highways to condos and strip malls. We will also have to live with a lot more solar panels and wind turbines’. The trade-off is that we’ll have cleaner air, cheaper energy, and, most importantly, we will be saving that land and landscape for future generations. We will have to balance land use with energy needs. The final piece of the puzzle is storage and ‘batteries’, both chemical, storage heaters and pumped hydro.
Griffiths calls for a jedi mind trick of finance to pay for all the new infrastructure. Investment in electrification, heat pumps and batteries should benefit from infrastructure financing as opposed to consumer credit. Lowest-cost infrastructure-grade financing is crucial. Policymakers could offer low cost climate loans rather like the long- term mortgages that enabled home ownership after the Great Depression. On the plus side, electricity is cheap and getting cheaper. Utility-scale solar currently costs ~3.7¢/kWh, wind power ~4.1¢ with natural gas at ~5.6¢/kWh. Behind-the-meter energy as generated on your rooftop is even cheaper.
Griffiths has put his money into a couple of ambitious electric ventures, Makani Power, a kite- powered wind-energy he stated in 2006 and Sunfolding that builds tracking devices that steer solar panels. Both technologies have been superseded by the advancing economics of conventional solar and wind power. As Griffiths says, ‘electricity will finally (well, almost) be too cheap to meter, as they used to say about nuclear power’. All of which represents a rare opportunity for industry, small and large.
But what to do about the ‘8,000- pound carbon gorilla in the room’, the proven reserves on oil company balance sheets? Portfolio divestment from fossil- fuel companies is no good, we need a mechanism for buying out the their stranded assets, preferably on the cheap. A final chapter reviews all the other stuff that is harder to decarbonize than transport and heating. Rather succinctly, Griffiths enumerates the problems of steel and concrete manufacture and the issue of sourcing all the raw materials that the electric world will require.
An appendix offers some briefing for use in dinner party conversations. CCUS? A waste of time. Natural gas? An unsafe, collapsing bridge to nowhere. Fracking? A huge distraction. A carbon tax? Not a solution. Griffiths also offers some suggestions as to where workers in different professions could fit into the new environment. His suggestion is not too helpful for oil and gas workers: ‘If you are an oil industry worker, thank you for your service. Now you’ll have a job helping America build the massive infrastructure that is required for a zero- carbon future’. That’s all folks!
*Electrify, An Optimist’s Playbook for Our Clean Energy Future Saul Griffith 2021 MIT Press ISBN: 9780262046237.
** We have submitted our heat pump debunkery to Mr. Griffiths and are waiting to hear back.
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