P2 Forecast promises probabilistic production profiles

New solution embeds ‘BZ’ physics-based analytics machine from BetaZi.

P2 Energy Solutions has announced P2 Forecast, a probabilistic production forecasting system for oil and gas. P2 Forecast is powered by BetaZi whose ‘BZ Machine’ is used to generate a million different decline curves from monthly production volumes. Privately held BetaZi’s oil and gas production forecasting solutions uses ‘physics-based predictive analytics,’ developed by modeling over 400,000 production profiles. The company has been providing forecasts to producers and financiers since 2012.

P2 Forecast provides automated, machine-generated forecasts. P2 claims that blind tests of the technology have shown projections to be ‘much more accurate’ than those done by hand. The system generates fast and unbiased forecasts of a range of future production possibilities, from p1 to p99, for every well in which a company has interest.

University of California professor Jamie Rector, who co-chairs the joint SPE/SEG committee on multidisciplinary assessment of unconventional resource development said, ‘Production engineers are trained to understand how wells operate, not for the fine details of curve fitting, differential equations, statistics and machine learning. P2 Forecast overcomes this common challenge and brings production forecasting and decline analysis into the modern world.’

BetaZi powered Merrick’s PM4Cast package before its acquisition by P2 in 2014. Last year (OITJ 2015 N° 2), RPS’ ‘Reality Check’ service was announced as also leveraging BetaZi’s deal screening engine.

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