Forecasts and fantasies

CITI, Booze Allen, IDC, Markets & Markets, TechNavio - the crystal balls are on overdrive.

A graphic from Citi researcher Ed Morse puts Saudi Arabia’s ‘fiscal breakeven’ production price at $98/bbl and the Eagle Ford/Bakken at a mere $40! As in ‘apples and oranges?

Booze Allen’s top energy sector trends for 2015 warns of a ‘Cyber Macondo’ attack on the energy sector. Industry is confronted with an ‘alphabet soup’ of complex regulations. There will be a new focus on reputational risk. HSE and capital investments will both ‘go predictive.’ The silver hair ‘tsunami’ leaves companies with shortages of key workers. Risk management ‘must move from the backroom to the boardroom.’

IDC Energy Insightspredictions see oil and gas companies ‘reengineering processes and systems to optimize logistics and hedge risk.’ 40% of major oils and all of the service sector will ‘co-innovate’ on technical projects with IT professional service firms. Companies’ IT environments are to evolve to a ‘3rd platform-driven architecture.’ 50% will have advanced analytics capabilities by 2016.

Markets and Markets forecasts that the reservoir analysis market will grow from $13 billion in 2014 to ‘nearly $22.4’ billion by 2019, a 10.6%/year growth.

But that pales when one considers the 56% annual growth that TechNavio is forecasting for the global big data market in oil and gas through to 2018. TechNavio also puts the global oil and gas Scada market’s growth at 7.45% from 2015-2019.

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