Petrobras has implemented a corporate-wide protocol to assess potential investments—from upstream through to trading and derivatives. The in-house developed system, Progride1, extends Microsoft Excel with custom C++ subroutines to model oil prices, taxes and royalties and provide sensitivity analysis and other KPIs. However, Progride’s risk analysis capabilities fell short in the face of complex projects, partnerships and multiple concessions.
To fill the gap, Petrobras has now integrated Palisade’s @Risk with Progride. Rafael Hartke, head of financial planning and risk management for Petrobras’ investment operations developed a method integrating @Risk with Progride, retaining the Excel front end. A typical workflow includes ‘conventional’ Progride analyses, kicked off from @Risk using a macro.
The new system generates multiple scenarios incorporating risk factors common to the projects being analyzed and accounts for joint venture partners and multiple concessions in different fiscal environments. A spinoff of the integration is that @Risk reduces calculation time for some analyses that could take ‘thousands of hours.’ More from www.oilit.com/links/1107_27.
1 Programa dos Indicadores do Desenvolvimento da Produção.
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