In a Decisioneering webcast this month, Chevron’s Michelle LaPoint showed how Crystal Ball was used to provide management with risk-based production forecasts from its Gulf of Mexico asset teams. LaPoint’s team supports Chevron 3 year and short term planning with monthly production targets. These are used internally for financial forecasting, resource allocation and competitive analysis.
The workflow starts with P10/50/90 base production forecasts supplied by Chevron’s engineering teams along with upcoming workover and drilling project plans. These are input to a Crystal Ball model which includes multiple projects, a capacity check and storm downtime forecasts. All stakeholders share in the model building, evaluating input accuracy and model outputs.
The model is used to compute the probability of different goals being met, when different projects will come on stream and at what rate. The Crystal Ball scenario analysis tool is used to create discrete monthly forecasts for each field and for area roll-up. But management wants more! In the form of a breakdown of significant uncertainties.
This is where the Tornado plot comes into its own, showing for instance that the most significant influence is the timing and size of the key projects. This kind of information is used to allocate resources to where they will have most impact.
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